Sudan’s army has announced a major victory in its ongoing war against the Rapid Support Forces, asserting that it has regained full control of the capital, Khartoum.
The military claims to have pushed the militia out of key locations, including the Presidential Palace and the city’s airport, both of which had been under RSF control since the conflict erupted two years ago.
Despite this significant development, analysts caution that the war is far from a resolution.
The RSF, deeply entrenched in other parts of Sudan, particularly Darfur, continues to fight for influence and has attempted to establish a parallel government.
A War Between Two Generals
The power struggle began in April 2023, pitting two of Sudan’s most powerful military figures against each other, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces , and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commander of the RSF.
Their dispute over the country’s transition to civilian rule, following the ousting of former President Omar al-Bashir and a subsequent military coup, escalated into a devastating war.
Over 28,000 people have lost their lives, and more than 11 million have been displaced.
The United Nations has described the humanitarian crisis as the most severe displacement disaster in the world.
While the SAF claims to have secured large portions of Sudan, much of Darfur, an area comparable in size to France, remains under RSF control.
The militia also holds strategic positions in West Kordofan and North Kordofan, according to a map released by the Sudanese army.
The RSF had been resisting in Khartoum but suffered a series of setbacks in recent weeks.
On Wednesday, the SAF released a video purportedly showing RSF fighters retreating from the capital, shortly after the army retook the airport. CNN reached out to the RSF for a response.
Later that day, SAF leader Burhan landed at Khartoum’s airport, marking the first flight received there since the war began. His arrival was meant to reinforce the army’s claim that “Khartoum is free.” SAF spokesman Nabil Abdullah confirmed that only “small pockets here and there that are being cleared out” remain in the capital.
With the RSF losing ground in Khartoum, many speculate that Darfur will become the next focal point of the conflict.
Sudanese researcher and activist, Hala Al-Karib, highlighted that the RSF, originally formed from the Janjaweed militia accused of genocide in the early 2000s, sees Darfur as its power base.
In January, the United States accused the RSF of committing genocide, citing systematic killings based on ethnicity. The RSF dismissed the accusation as “inaccurate.”
“It (Darfur) is the RSF stronghold where they started as the Janjaweed and where they fought and continue to fight for land grabbing from the African indigenous population who own the land,” Al-Karib explained.
While SAF spokesman Abdullah refused to confirm if military operations would shift to Darfur, he made it clear that the war is far from over.
“The journey is still long because our goal is to cleanse the entire country,” he stated.
Civilians Caught in the Crossfire
The ongoing conflict has taken a heavy toll on civilians, with North Darfur being the latest area to witness mass casualties.
On Monday, airstrikes targeted a market in Tora, a village controlled by rebels, reportedly killing over 400 people, according to local sources. The RSF shared disturbing footage of burned bodies, blaming the SAF for the attack.
Volker Türk, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, expressed deep concern over the reports, revealing that 13 victims belonged to the same family.
“Civilian objects remain an all-too-frequent target,” Türk lamented.
The SAF denied targeting civilians, with spokesman Abdullah asserting:
“We are the ones protecting civilians and preserving their lives and property, unlike the militia, which has continued since the outbreak of this war to bombard civilians with drones, artillery, and missiles.”
Political analyst, Kholood Khair, believes the SAF’s recent victories could either further fracture Sudan or force the RSF into negotiations. Previous peace talks, mediated by the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and the African Union, have repeatedly failed.
“This war has added an ugly ethnic taint to the political and economic conflicts that will be difficult to resolve even with a national level agreement,” Khair said.
In a bid to strengthen its political position, the RSF recently signed a charter with allied groups, advocating for the creation of a secular, democratic state. Analysts see this move as a push for legitimacy amid the ongoing war.
“The RSF’s proposed state is a quest for legitimacy,” Khair noted, adding that the militia might now focus on capturing El Fasher, the last major town in Darfur not under its control.
However, Sudanese human rights lawyer Mutasim Ali is skeptical about the RSF’s ability to establish a parallel government.
“The RSF does not necessarily control the entire people of Darfur even though it has a widespread presence across the region. From a practical standpoint, I see it (dividing Sudan) as a difficult thing to achieve, especially considering the SAF taking over a bunch of places,” he explained.
For Al-Karib, the RSF’s attempt to form a separate government is more of a strategic maneuver than a viable reality.
“It’s a pressure card on (the) SAF to engage with them and to legitimize themselves as a political force in case of any political talks,” she said.
Despite speculation about potential negotiations, the SAF appears determined to eliminate the RSF militarily.
SAF deputy commander Yasser al-Atta made the army’s stance clear when he told soldiers:
“There will be no retreat or stop until the militia and its collaborating agents are eradicated from the lives of the Sudanese.”
With the SAF seemingly holding the upper hand, Ali believes the military will continue its campaign rather than pursue talks.
“Surely the conflict is far from over, but I believe (the) SAF will now have a major advantage. In the meantime, to reclaim legitimacy, (the) SAF will institute a government that will be less open to negotiations and further insist on military victory,” he predicted.
Meanwhile, millions of Sudanese civilians, like Omnia and her children, who were forced to flee their home, remain caught in a war with no clear resolution in sight.
