China on Monday announced that it’s trade surplus soared to unprecedented levels in 2024, nearing $1 trillion, as the nation’s exports flooded international markets while domestic businesses and households exercised restraint in import spending.
Adjusted for inflation, this trade surplus surpassed any recorded globally in the past century, outpacing export giants like Germany, Japan, and the United States.
Chinese factories have cemented their dominance in global manufacturing, a scale unseen since the United States’ industrial supremacy after World War II.
However, the overwhelming flow of goods has sparked criticism from a growing list of trade partners.
Both developed and emerging economies have responded with tariffs to curb Chinese exports, prompting retaliatory measures from Beijing and edging the world closer to a destabilizing trade conflict.
The looming inauguration of President-elect Donald J. Trump, who is set to return to office next week, has heightened concerns.
Trump has vowed to intensify America’s hardline trade stance on China, proposing steep tariffs on Chinese goods—a move that risks rekindling a trade war between the two economic giants.
Despite these tensions, China’s exports reached unprecedented heights in 2024, offering a critical boost to its economy.
Total exports climbed to 25.45 trillion yuan (US$3.47 trillion), marking a 7.1 percent increase from the previous year, according to state media. Imports grew modestly by 2.3 percent to 18.39 trillion yuan, pushing the country’s overall trade volume to a record 43.85 trillion yuan, a 5 percent rise year-on-year.
As exports far outstripped imports, the trade surplus surged to US$104.84 billion.
Deputy head of the General Administration of Customs, Wang Lingjun, highlighted the swift growth of China’s foreign trade among major global economies during a press briefing in Beijing.
“China has become a major trading partner of more than 150 countries and regions, and the country’s circle of friends in foreign trade is getting larger,” Wang noted.
Wang also emphasized advancements in the composition of China’s trade.
“The structure of import and export products had also been continuously optimised and upgraded last year, with high-tech products reporting good growth numbers and a boom in new types of trade such as cross-border e-commerce,” he said.
According to Huang Zichun of Capital Economics, China’s export momentum is likely to continue in the short term, with businesses striving to stay ahead of potential tariff increases.
“Outbound shipments are likely to stay resilient in the near-term, supported by further gains in global market share thanks to a weak real effective exchange rate,” Huang explained in a research note.
However, she cautioned that this strength might wane if Trump proceeds with his tariff threats.
“Exports will likely weaken later in the year if Trump follows through on his threat to impose tariffs,” Huang added.
